Well, that was fun for LSU. After getting to #1 last week, LSU could not sustain the momentum – losing at Florida. Florida’s rise helped Kentucky, who lost at Texas A&M. As such Kentucky did not fall much at all from the previous #4. Notre Dame backed up their huge win against Stanford with a strong win at Virginia Tech. Ian Book has seemed to change everything there. Ohio State had to sweat more than expected against a spunky Indiana team, but pulled away late.
Now on the eye test, I find it hard not to love Alabama. At the same time, their resume is not as good as Georgia, especially with the lack of decent road wins. This does raise some questions about whether you can use an NCAA basketball framework when there are fewer datapoints and less near term schedule control. I am inclined though to still stick with objective criteria. It’s more reason for a 16 team tournament.
What would a perfect CFP look like? For me, it takes the 10 conference champs and 6 at-larges. The power 5 teams are the top 5 seeds, with one Group of 5 team joining them as a top 6 seed if it is higher ranked than any of the Power 5 champions (and independents subject to same criteria). For now, we use the rankings for conference champs. In this framework, because of Washington being ranked below Notre Dame and UCF.
(thru October 10 – so the weeknight games this week are here)
TEAM | CONF | W | L | RTG | |
1 | Georgia | SEC | 6 | 0 | 445.4567 |
2 | Alabama | SEC | 6 | 0 | 388.7769 |
3 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 6 | 0 | 302.0601 |
4 | Notre Dame | Ind | 6 | 0 | 280.2624 |
5 | Clemson | ACC | 6 | 0 | 276.8497 |
6 | Kentucky | SEC | 5 | 1 | 188.9309 |
7 | Penn State | Big Ten | 4 | 1 | 167.0779 |
8 | LSU | SEC | 5 | 1 | 164.4227 |
9 | West Virginia | Big 12 | 5 | 0 | 162.5482 |
10 | Florida | SEC | 5 | 1 | 149.0177 |
11 | UCF | American | 5 | 0 | 146.7363 |
12 | Michigan | Big Ten | 5 | 1 | 133.3013 |
13 | Oklahoma | Big 12 | 5 | 1 | 126.2918 |
14 | NC State | ACC | 5 | 0 | 124.6455 |
15 | Cincinnati | American | 6 | 0 | 100 |
16 | Texas | Big 12 | 5 | 1 | 94.90253 |
17 | South Carolina | SEC | 3 | 2 | 91.38364 |
18 | Appalachian State | Sun Belt | 4 | 1 | 91.05479 |
19 | Washington | Pac 12 | 5 | 1 | 90.02829 |
20 | Texas A&M | SEC | 4 | 2 | 89.95471 |
21 | Duke | ACC | 4 | 1 | 84.67151 |
22 | South Florida | American | 5 | 0 | 83.15889 |
23 | Miami-FL | ACC | 5 | 1 | 78.59651 |
24 | Colorado | Pac 12 | 5 | 0 | 77.18483 |
25 | Mississippi State | SEC | 4 | 2 | 72.38202 |
26 | Iowa | Big Ten | 4 | 1 | 71.74454 |
27 | Stanford | Pac 12 | 4 | 2 | 70.84703 |
28 | Army | Ind | 3 | 2 | 68.57295 |
29 | Wisconsin | Big Ten | 4 | 1 | 68.04476 |
30 | Washington State | Pac 12 | 5 | 1 | 64.70651 |
31 | Ole Miss | SEC | 4 | 2 | 64.13018 |
32 | Syracuse | ACC | 4 | 2 | 61.17363 |
33 | Utah | Pac 12 | 3 | 2 | 59.69634 |
34 | Auburn | SEC | 4 | 2 | 58.16709 |
35 | Fresno State | MWC | 4 | 1 | 58.1013 |
36 | Georgia Southern | Sun Belt | 4 | 1 | 57.6603 |
37 | Utah State | MWC | 4 | 1 | 56.39559 |
38 | San Diego State | MWC | 4 | 1 | 55.85583 |
39 | Texas Tech | Big 12 | 3 | 2 | 53.79482 |
40 | Missouri | SEC | 3 | 2 | 52.35171 |
41 | UAB | C-USA | 4 | 1 | 51.15842 |
42 | TCU | Big 12 | 3 | 2 | 48.33287 |
43 | Virginia Tech | ACC | 3 | 2 | 47.87337 |
44 | Buffalo | MAC | 5 | 1 | 44.67217 |
45 | USC | Pac 12 | 3 | 2 | 43.85405 |
46 | Maryland | Big Ten | 3 | 2 | 43.46367 |
47 | Oregon | Pac 12 | 4 | 1 | 43.07939 |
48 | Indiana | Big Ten | 4 | 2 | 42.41534 |
49 | Houston | American | 4 | 1 | 41.82609 |
50 | Boston College | ACC | 4 | 2 | 41.41224 |
51 | North Texas | C-USA | 5 | 1 | 41.15424 |
52 | Michigan State | Big Ten | 3 | 2 | 41.13761 |
53 | Troy | Sun Belt | 5 | 1 | 40.89167 |
54 | Vanderbilt | SEC | 3 | 3 | 40.62189 |
55 | Boise State | MWC | 3 | 2 | 40.41142 |
56 | Virginia | ACC | 3 | 2 | 39.46321 |
57 | Coastal Carolina | Sun Belt | 3 | 2 | 38.43363 |
58 | Iowa State | Big 12 | 2 | 3 | 36.23679 |
59 | Arizona State | Pac 12 | 3 | 3 | 36.18151 |
60 | MTSU | C-USA | 3 | 2 | 35.71895 |
61 | Minnesota | Big Ten | 3 | 2 | 35.09785 |
62 | Oklahoma State | Big 12 | 4 | 2 | 32.81936 |
63 | Hawaii | MWC | 6 | 1 | 32.50874 |
64 | Western Michigan | MAC | 4 | 2 | 32.35758 |
65 | Baylor | Big 12 | 4 | 2 | 31.68708 |
66 | Louisiana Tech | C-USA | 3 | 2 | 29.92319 |
67 | Northwestern | Big Ten | 2 | 3 | 29.92024 |
68 | Pittsburgh | ACC | 3 | 3 | 28.0797 |
69 | Florida Atlantic | C-USA | 3 | 3 | 26.6124 |
70 | Illinois | Big Ten | 3 | 2 | 26.26167 |
71 | BYU | Ind | 3 | 3 | 26.11415 |
72 | Georgia Tech | ACC | 3 | 3 | 25.88869 |
73 | FIU | C-USA | 3 | 2 | 25.15232 |
74 | Wake Forest | ACC | 3 | 3 | 24.64846 |
75 | Arkansas State | Sun Belt | 3 | 3 | 23.00435 |
76 | Florida State | ACC | 3 | 3 | 22.61945 |
77 | Toledo | MAC | 3 | 2 | 22.38741 |
78 | Purdue | Big Ten | 2 | 3 | 21.97828 |
79 | Marshall | C-USA | 3 | 2 | 21.84755 |
80 | Temple | American | 3 | 3 | 21.69562 |
81 | New Mexico | MWC | 3 | 2 | 21.07004 |
82 | Ohio | MAC | 3 | 2 | 21.06449 |
83 | California | Pac 12 | 3 | 2 | 20.98606 |
84 | Memphis | American | 4 | 2 | 19.54506 |
85 | Northern Illinois | MAC | 3 | 3 | 19.23601 |
86 | Arizona | Pac 12 | 3 | 3 | 19.04622 |
87 | Tulane | American | 2 | 4 | 18.57477 |
88 | Eastern Michigan | MAC | 2 | 4 | 18.13255 |
89 | LA-Lafayette | Sun Belt | 2 | 3 | 17.36971 |
90 | Tennessee | SEC | 2 | 3 | 17.10489 |
91 | Akron | MAC | 2 | 2 | 16.28208 |
92 | Miami-OH | MAC | 2 | 4 | 15.54712 |
93 | Liberty | Ind | 2 | 3 | 15.12098 |
94 | Kansas State | Big 12 | 2 | 4 | 14.62841 |
95 | Air Force | MWC | 2 | 3 | 14.49969 |
96 | Nevada | MWC | 3 | 3 | 13.50247 |
97 | SMU | American | 2 | 4 | 11.35117 |
98 | Southern Miss | C-USA | 2 | 2 | 11.28295 |
99 | Wyoming | MWC | 2 | 4 | 10.95456 |
100 | Navy | American | 2 | 3 | 10.56825 |
101 | North Carolina | ACC | 1 | 3 | 9.922419 |
102 | Massachusetts | Ind | 2 | 5 | 9.494485 |
103 | East Carolina | American | 2 | 3 | 9.080067 |
104 | Charlotte | C-USA | 2 | 3 | 8.965527 |
105 | Georgia State | Sun Belt | 2 | 4 | 8.711854 |
106 | UCLA | Pac 12 | 0 | 5 | 8.67553 |
107 | Kansas | Big 12 | 2 | 4 | 8.361064 |
108 | Old Dominion | C-USA | 1 | 5 | 8.15511 |
109 | UNLV | MWC | 2 | 3 | 8.096114 |
110 | LA-Monroe | Sun Belt | 2 | 4 | 8.094136 |
111 | Louisville | ACC | 2 | 4 | 8.063053 |
112 | Ball State | MAC | 2 | 4 | 7.983199 |
113 | UTSA | C-USA | 3 | 3 | 7.746922 |
114 | Tulsa | American | 1 | 4 | 7.644233 |
115 | Nebraska | Big Ten | 0 | 5 | 7.050814 |
116 | South Alabama | Sun Belt | 1 | 5 | 6.596887 |
117 | New Mexico State | Ind | 2 | 4 | 6.572605 |
118 | Kent State | MAC | 1 | 5 | 6.142388 |
119 | Arkansas | SEC | 1 | 5 | 6.009176 |
120 | Oregon State | Pac 12 | 1 | 5 | 5.758727 |
121 | Western Kentucky | C-USA | 1 | 4 | 5.725976 |
122 | Connecticut | American | 1 | 5 | 5.366261 |
123 | Colorado State | MWC | 2 | 4 | 5.278101 |
124 | Rutgers | Big Ten | 1 | 5 | 5.087636 |
125 | Central Michigan | MAC | 1 | 5 | 5.081554 |
126 | Bowling Green | MAC | 1 | 5 | 3.817287 |
127 | Texas State | Sun Belt | 1 | 4 | 3.129276 |
128 | Rice | C-USA | 1 | 5 | 2.818722 |
129 | Other | Other | 7 | 92 | 2.048774 |
130 | San Jose State | MWC | 0 | 5 | 1.638707 |
131 | UTEP | C-USA | 0 | 6 | 1.17302 |
AUTOMATIC BIDS:
- SEC – Georgia
- ACC – Clemson
- Big Ten – Ohio State
- Big 12 – West Virginia
- Pac 12 – Washington
- AAC – Central Florida
- C-USA – UAB
- Sun Belt – Appalachian State
- MAC – Buffalo
- MWC – Fresno State
AT LARGE: Alabama, LSU, Penn State, Kentucky, Clemson, Ohio State
- PEACH BOWL: (1) Georgia v (4) Buffalo, (2) Washington v (3) Penn State
- ROSE BOWL: (1) Ohio State v (4) UAB, (2) Alabama v (3) Florida
- FIESTA BOWL: (1) Notre Dame v (4) Fresno State, (2) Central Florida v (3) Kentucky
- SUGAR BOWL: (1) Clemson v (4) Appalachian State, (2) West Virginia v (3) LSU
BUBBLE:
- Last 2 teams in: LSU, Florida
- First 2 teams out: Michigan, Oklahoma
- Next 2 teams out: NC State, Cincinnati
- Two more: Texas, South Carolina